Costco earnings outlook remains a major focus for investors as the membership-retail giant prepares to release results for the quarter ended November 2025. With Wall Street expecting steady revenue growth and a solid year-over-year jump in earnings, many are wondering whether now is the right time to buy shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST). In this article, we explore analyst estimates, revision trends, the Earnings ESP model, and Costco’s beat history to determine what investors should expect.

Why the Costco Earnings Outlook Matters

The upcoming earnings release on December 11 has the potential to move the stock significantly. When expectations are high—as is the case with the current Costco earnings outlook—actual results that exceed consensus can trigger strong upside momentum. Conversely, any disappointment may weigh on the stock, even if the long-term story remains intact.

For the November quarter, analysts expect earnings of $4.24 per share, an 11% increase from the same period last year. Revenue is projected to reach $67.15 billion, representing 8% year-over-year growth. These positive forecasts reflect resilient consumer demand, sustained traffic, and Costco’s ability to maintain membership loyalty despite a challenging retail environment.

Estimate Revisions Shape the Costco Earnings Outlook

Revisions play a key role in shaping the short-term Costco earnings outlook. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has dipped 0.02%, suggesting slightly softer sentiment among analysts. Although the change is minimal, it signals that some experts have reassessed expectations as December approaches.

However, aggregate revisions don’t always reflect the full picture. Some analysts may be more optimistic, while others turn cautious based on recent macro trends. Investors evaluating the Costco earnings outlook should consider the direction of these recent updates rather than the raw numbers alone.

What the Earnings ESP Tells Us

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is a model designed to gauge the likelihood of an earnings beat. It compares the Most Accurate Estimate against the broader consensus. A positive ESP increases the odds of a beat—especially when paired with a strong Zacks Rank (#1–#3).

Unfortunately for investors hoping for a surprise, the current Costco earnings outlook shows an Earnings ESP of -0.69%. This means the Most Accurate Estimate is slightly lower than consensus, suggesting analysts have become a bit more bearish in the final stretch before the report.

To make matters more uncertain, Costco holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) heading into earnings. While this ranking does not necessarily predict a miss, it does weaken the probability of an upside surprise. As a result, the Costco earnings outlook is currently mixed: strong long-term fundamentals, but muted near-term expectations.

Does Earnings History Support a Bullish Case?

Earnings history can offer useful clues. In the previous quarter, Costco was expected to earn $5.81 per share, but the company delivered $5.87, resulting in a +1.03% surprise. Over the last four quarters, Costco has beaten expectations three times.

This track record suggests that management tends to execute well, even in volatile conditions. For investors assessing the Costco earnings outlook, this history adds a modest degree of confidence. Still, past beats don’t guarantee future ones—especially when analyst sentiment has cooled.

Should Investors Buy Costco Before Earnings?

Based on the current Costco earnings outlook, Costco does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat this quarter. But that does not necessarily mean investors should avoid the stock.

Costco remains one of the most consistent and resilient retail operators. Membership renewals remain high, traffic is strong, and the company continues to expand globally. Long-term investors typically prioritize these structural advantages over short-term EPS fluctuations.

However, short-term traders looking to capitalize on an earnings pop may want to remain cautious. The combination of negative Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #4 weakens the probability of a near-term upside catalyst.

Bottom Line

The Costco earnings outlook points to healthy growth but limited probability of a big earnings-driven rally. Investors should watch beyond the headline numbers—management’s commentary on margins, membership rates, and consumer spending will be critical for determining the stock’s next move.

Costco may not be a clear beat-candidate this quarter, but its long-term fundamentals remain compelling. Whether to buy now depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and belief in Costco’s continued ability to thrive in a dynamic retail landscape.

Even with the uncertain Costco earnings outlook, many investors continue to view Costco as a model of operational strength and consumer loyalty. If the company delivers steady results and optimistic commentary, the stock could regain momentum heading into 2026. For long-term portfolios, Costco often proves resilient regardless of quarterly volatility.