Royal LePage expects sidelined buyers to re-engage this quarter ahead of expected rate cuts by the Bank of Canada

Fourth quarter highlights:

• National aggregate home price increased 4.3% year over year in Q4 2023; decreased 1.7% quarter over quarter
• Aggregate home price in greater regions of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver posted gains of 5.1%, 4.1% and 2.7% year over year, respectively, in final quarter of 2023
• Among report’s major regions, Calgary recorded highest year over year price appreciation (10.7%); only major region to post quarterly price gains in Q4 2023 (1.5% over Q3)
• 81% of regional markets posted a quarter-over-quarter decline
• Approximately 2.2 million mortgages in Canada will be renewing over the next two years, most at a much higher interest rate
• National aggregate home price expected to rise 5.5% year over year in Q4 of 2024

TORONTO, Jan. 15, 2024 /CNW/ – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada increased 4.3 per cent year over year to $789,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price decreased slightly by 1.7 per cent, highlighting that elevated borrowing costs continue to affect market activity, as Canadians adapt to the higher interest rate environment.

 “I believe the narrative suggesting that the housing market will rebound only when the Bank of Canada lowers rates misses the mark,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “The recovery will begin when consumers have confidence the home they buy today will not be worth less tomorrow. We see that tipping point occurring in the first quarter, before the highly anticipated easing of the Bank of Canada’s key lending rate.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.4 per cent year over year to $816,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.0 per cent year over year to $583,900. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.1 per cent, while the median price of a condominium declined modestly by 0.6 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

“Canadian consumers are moving through a period of transition and as a result, so are the dynamics of our national housing market,” added Soper. “Buyer sentiment can have as great an impact on market trends as inventory or interest rates. Early market recovery will be sparked by signs of home price stability, and we are very close to that now.”

Home prices in Canada have not yet fully recovered from the correction, with the aggregate price of a home in Canada sitting 7.9 per cent below the peak reached in the first quarter of 2022. However, the national aggregate home price remains well above pre-pandemic levels. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the aggregate price of a home in Canada recorded an increase of 18.7 per cent over the same period in 2020, and 22.2 per cent over the same period in 2019.

“People are working, with unemployment particularly low among the key 25 to 55 year-old demographic. Discretionary spending is down and savings levels are materially higher than normal. Nearly two years after the Bank of Canada began raising rates, mortgage delinquency remains at historic lows. We believe many who need housing have the capacity to enter the market, they simply lack the confidence to transact,” Soper continued.

Throughout the second half of 2023, while prices declined modestly across the country, the Calgary real estate market bucked the trend continuing on an upward price trajectory. Among the report’s major regions, Calgary is the only one to post a quarter-over-quarter aggregate price gain (1.5%), and recorded the highest year-over-year price appreciation (10.7%).

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), months of inventory have been increasing compared to the ultra-low levels recorded during the pandemic-fueled boom, yet remain below historical norms. In the final quarter of 2023, there were just over four months of inventory available in Canada, compared to less than two months at the end of 2021, and between five and six months’ worth in 2018 and the first half of 2019.²

“Over the last year and a half, we’ve seen a drop in sales activity in most of Canada’s major real estate markets, while inventory levels have gradually increased. Yet, we know the number of homes available remains well below what we need today and will continue to need in the future. The fundamental shortage of housing supply in this country will inevitably put upward pressure on home prices when temporarily sidelined buyers return to the market in the months ahead,” said Soper. 

In December, the Bank of Canada once again held its key lending rate steady at 5.0 per cent.³ The central bank has indicated that it has likely concluded its interest rate increase campaign, and it is widely expected to make modest cuts later this year. Meanwhile, several major financial institutions have already begun offering discounts on fixed-rate mortgages as bond yields decline.

“The Bank of Canada governing council will soon face the difficult task of trying to balance the lowering of interest rates without simultaneously stimulating spending, which would cause inflation to rise again,” said Soper.

In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis, matching the increase in October.⁴ If mortgage interest costs are taken out of the CPI calculation, inflation sits at 2.2 per cent, close to the Bank of Canada’s target rate.⁵ 

“In Canada, we purchase homes with short-term mortgages of five years or less, in contrast to the situation in the U.S. where much longer 30-year terms are the norm. In a typical year, 25 per cent of our mortgages turn over. Consequently, during the period from 2023 to 2025, most homeowners in Canada will have transitioned to higher mid-single-digit borrowing. We will be required to adapt quickly, positioning our industry on a path to recovery more quickly than in the U.S. where the prospect of losing a below-market rate will act as a deterrent to moving.”

In 2024 and 2025, nearly half (45%) of all outstanding mortgages in the country will be up for renewal, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).⁶ That’s about 2.2 million households that will be renewing their mortgages, most at a much higher rate. 

“Similar to what we witnessed last spring, when the Bank of Canada paused rates for the first time in a year causing sales activity and prices to increase almost immediately, the first sign of rate cuts – even if only by 25 basis points – could create a flurry of activity in the real estate market,  releasing pent-up demand. Those who have been holding off listing their homes will follow close behind.”

In December, Royal LePage issued its 2024 Market Survey Forecast, projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Nationally, home prices are forecast to see modest quarterly gains in the first six months of 2024, with more considerable increases expected in the second half of the year, due to a boost in activity following a widely anticipated series of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

Royal LePage’s forecast is based on the prediction that the Bank of Canada has concluded its interest rate hike campaign and that the key lending rate will hold steady at five per cent through the first part of 2024.  

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 5.1 per cent year over year to $1,123,300 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA decreased 2.1 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.6 per cent year over year to $1,373,800 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 5.4 per cent to $719,900 during the same period.

“For the first time in months, Canadians seem to be feeling somewhat optimistic about the trajectory of borrowing costs. A brisk spring real estate market is on the horizon for Toronto and the GTA, provided the Bank of Canada has concluded its aggressive series of interest rate increases,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “Through the second half of 2023, sales activity in the region steadily declined allowing a small cache of inventory to build up. Despite this, home prices only dipped modestly during that time, due to a coinciding drop in demand as would-be buyers remained sidelined, waiting for interest rates to come down. And still, prices have remained above 2022 levels.”

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home increased 3.0 per cent year over year to $1,119,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.6 per cent to $1,602,200, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.7 per cent to $699,800.

Yolevski noted that despite a recent increase in supply, housing stock in the GTA remains altogether out of step with continuously growing demand. 

“With new household formation from young Canadians, older generations wanting to age in place and a record number of newcomers entering the country, new construction cannot keep pace with the rate of demand,” said Yolevski. “Further, the demand-supply imbalance cannot be rectified with one simple solution. There is no silver bullet to solving Toronto’s – nor Canada’s – housing supply and affordability crisis. Rather, a series of concurrent initiatives to support and incentivize a rapid increase in housing supply is necessary through cooperation from all levels of government.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 4.1 per cent year over year to $566,800 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GMA decreased modestly by 1.5 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.7 per cent year over year to $629,700 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.1 per cent to $450,200 during the same period.

“The last quarter of the year saw a slight decline in prices and sales in the Greater Montreal Area real estate market as a direct result of inflation and the significant increase in mortgage rates in 2023,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager, Royal LePage, Quebec Region. “Despite this, we are seeing an increase in requests for showings, which reflects renewed optimism among buyers about the real estate market, while a drop in interest rates seems increasingly within their reach for 2024.”

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 8.1 per cent year over year to $699,100 in the fourth quarter of 2023. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased modestly by 0.8 per cent to $1,044,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.1 per cent to $548,600.

A look at the state of the Greater Montreal Area property market shows that the number of active listings for all property types remains well below the ten-year average, and this is despite strong growth in demand due to rapid population growth. In December 2014, there were a total of 30,171 active residential listings in the Montreal Metropolitan Area, compared with 15,907 in December 2023, or 47.3% below the average for the last decade.⁷

“Even though consumers have adapted to the new reality of higher mortgage rates, increased borrowing costs are the main factor currently keeping prices from escalating, given that the supply of housing remains extremely low. We expect pent-up demand to show up quickly in the housing market, as soon as the central bank announces a change of course in its monetary policy,” said St-Pierre. “The spring market should be dynamic.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 2.7 per cent to $1,220,100 year over year in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region remained relatively flat, decreasing by 0.7 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.4 per cent year over year to $1,731,900 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.2 per cent to $762,600 during the same period.

“The last few months of 2023 concluded much as expected: a generally quiet period but not without some last-minute transactions being completed before the end of the year. Overall, sales activity and prices in the fourth quarter were consistent with the fall, and despite the typical seasonal slowdown, home prices in Greater Vancouver have remained stable,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “There remains a significant amount of pent-up demand from homebuyers waiting to return to the marketplace. It’s simply a question of when, a factor that hinges on the trajectory of lending rates.” 

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 3.4 per cent year over year to $1,391,700 in the fourth quarter of 2023. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.1 per cent to $2,244,200, while the median price of a condominium increased 5.5 per cent to $827,900.

“Looking ahead, we could see a brisk spring market, especially if fixed-rate loans continue to trend downward. This will spur significant activity,” noted Ryalls. “If we see the Bank of Canada begin to cut interest rates early in the year, competition among buyers could heat up quickly.”

Ryalls added that a significant boost in inventory will be needed to meet the demands of buyers coming off the sidelines. 

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 4.8 per cent year over year to $754,700 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.1 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.9 per cent year over year to $866,700 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.5 per cent to $401,100 during the same period.

“The Ottawa housing market experienced a slowdown in activity towards the end of the year, allowing for a slight build-up of inventory throughout the region. While it is typical to see a seasonal decline in activity in the winter months, interest rates have continued to keep both buyers and sellers on the sidelines, with many opting to hold off on transacting until the Bank of Canada lowers lending rates,” said John Rogan, broker of record, Royal LePage Performance Realty. “There is pent-up demand from buyers who are eager to transact, and even a slight decrease in lending rates in the coming months will result in a surge of activity in Ottawa’s housing market.”

Rogan noted that sidelined buyers will take advantage of lower interest rates and anticipates that this momentum will fuel activity in the housing market by the end of the first quarter and into the spring.

“Heightened activity is expected towards the end of the first quarter as we head into the spring market, especially if we see a decline in interest rates. Despite a noticeable uptick in available inventory compared to previous years, I anticipate that we will see upward pressure on housing prices as supply remains outpaced by demand in the region,” said Rogan.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary increased 10.7 per cent year over year to $663,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.5 per cent. Among the report’s major regions, Calgary recorded the highest year over year price appreciation and was the only one to post quarterly price gains.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 9.8 per cent year over year to $754,100 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 11.4 per cent to $260,400 during the same period.

“Calgary closed out 2023 on a high note, as low inventory fueled competitive market conditions,  keeping home prices on an upward trajectory throughout the final months of the year. Sales volumes continue to trend above the region’s ten-year average, with October home sales being one of the best on record for the month,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “The city continues to experience a wave of interprovincial migration as Canadians seek out more affordable living options, which is driving further demand for housing here.”

Lyall noted that activity in the single-family detached segment has been softer than normal as of late, as reduced inventory and limited borrowing capacity as a result of elevated interest rates have pushed some buyers into the more affordable condominium and townhome markets.

“In the months ahead, we anticipate that inventory levels will rise as sellers gear up for the spring market, giving homebuyers more choice. We don’t, however, expect demand to ease up anytime soon, as many buyers have yet to make their move,” said Lyall. “If interest rates were to drop sometime in 2024, more sellers may consider listing their homes to take advantage of lower borrowing rates upon renewal, thereby boosting supply levels across the region.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 8.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased modestly by 0.8 per cent year over year to $430,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased slightly by 0.6 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.3 per cent year over year to $470,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium decreased modestly by 0.7 per cent to $192,800 during the same period.

“Edmonton’s real estate market ended the year better than expected, with activity picking up noticeably in December. We are heading into the new year with a listing deficit – the lowest inventory levels since 2014 – which will put pressure on buyers throughout the winter and into spring,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Although rising competition will likely push prices up, homes will still remain affordable in Edmonton compared to other major cities across Canada.”

Shearer noted that price increases will likely be concentrated in the single-family detached segment. However, as buyers face growing competition in this area, some will try their hand in the less popular but much more affordable condominium segment.

“I don’t believe we will see a big jump in prices until spring, when the market naturally becomes more active,” said Shearer. “However, if mortgage rates were to start coming down in the spring or summer, this will only fuel further competition between buyers, while reactivating investor interest in Edmonton.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 4.7 per cent year over year to $490,900 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.6 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.6 per cent year over year to $552,400 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.9 per cent to $413,600 during the same period.

“As is expected in the later months of the year, the Halifax real estate market wrapped up 2023 with both prices and sales activity trending down slightly. Although inventory has increased from ultra-low pandemic-era levels, supply continues to be historically low, which is keeping the market competitive and in sellers’ favour,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Comparatively strong activity at the start of this year indicates that there is lingering interest in the market. Some of those sidelined buyers are already coming back to the table. Throughout the first quarter of 2024, I imagine more of that pent-up demand will return to the market as eager buyers look to transact before competition heats up too much.”

Honsberger noted that some buyers and sellers are still having to adjust their expectations to current market conditions – purchasers tend to offer less than asking price in hopes of securing some savings, while sellers are still holding out for 2021-era pricing. As such, deals require careful negotiation.

“If the Bank of Canada drops interest rates even by a small amount, this will encourage buyers to return to the market more rapidly,” said Honsberger. “Halifax is experiencing strong population growth and continues to grapple with low rental inventory. I suspect that renters who are paying high prices for their leases will be compelled to look at purchasing a home once their borrowing capacity improves.”

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 4.7 per cent year over year to $378,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 2.0 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.3 per cent year over year to $414,800 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.6 per cent to $258,100 during the same period.

“Towards the end of the quarter, there was a material surge in activity across all housing types in Winnipeg’s real estate market. The region saw an increase in sales volume in comparison to the same period last year – including in the luxury property and condo segments – leading to a strong finish to 2023,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “Notably, many properties sold above the asking price as competition for desirable homes in the region remains tight.”

Looking ahead, Froese expects a traditional first quarter, with slowed market activity in the winter months followed by increasing sales and prices heading into the spring market. A potential drop in interest rates could stimulate market activity and place further upward pressure on housing prices as demand continues to exceed available inventory.

“If we see lending rates decline in the coming months, I anticipate activity will pick up from sidelined buyers who have been waiting to transact, and will encourage current homeowners to consider moving up in the market, allowing for additional supply in the region,” Froese added.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 2.2 per cent year over year to $367,600 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region remained virtually flat with a decrease of 0.3 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8 per cent year over year to $395,800 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.9 per cent to $223,200 during the same period.

“Although the winter months typically result in a slowdown in Regina’s housing market, the region saw strong activity towards the end of the year with persistent high demand and a shortage of quality inventory,” said Shaheen Zareh, sales representative, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “While many buyers have opted to hold off on transacting as borrowing costs remain relatively high, there is still strong demand for properties in desirable areas. With continued supply constraints, these transactions often result in multiple-offer scenarios, which has put further upward pressure on home prices.”

Looking ahead at the first quarter of the year and into the spring market, Zareh foresees continued inventory shortages, with demand building on the sidelines as buyers anticipate a potential decrease in lending rates.

“Regina’s prevailing lack of inventory is expected to drive robust activity as we enter the spring market. When the Bank of Canada reduces interest rates, many of those who have been waiting on the sidelines will jump back into the market. This will ultimately increase competition and as a result, property prices,” Zareh added.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2023

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2023

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The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.

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SOURCE Royal LePage Real Estate Services

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