Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL) is gearing up to announce its first-quarter fiscal 2024 results on March 27, 2024, before the market opens. In the previous quarter, the company pleasantly surprised investors with an earnings beat of 41.7%.
Analysts have revised their estimates slightly upwards in the past 30 days, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share improving to 17 cents from 18 cents. Comparatively, in the same quarter of the prior year, CCL reported a loss per share of 55 cents.
The consensus forecast for revenues stands at $5.4 billion, indicating a robust 21.9% growth from the figure reported in the corresponding period last year, which amounted to $4.43 billion.
Key Factors to Watch
Carnival is anticipated to witness a year-over-year uptick in first-quarter revenues, primarily driven by enhancements in occupancy rates, booking activities, and a favorable pricing environment. The company’s performance in the upcoming quarter is likely to benefit from strong demand supported by new marketing initiatives and increased onboard spending facilitated by bundled package offerings and pre-cruise sales.
Revenue growth is expected to stem particularly from onboard spending and passenger ticket sales. Our projections suggest that passenger ticket revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 will increase by approximately 13.1% year over year to $3.25 billion, while onboard and other revenues are forecasted to surge by 33.5% year over year to $2.09 billion.
In terms of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), Carnival anticipates approximately $0.8 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2024, a significant improvement from the $0.38 billion reported in the same period last year. Additionally, the company expects the adjusted net loss for the first quarter to be approximately ($0.28) billion, compared to ($0.69) billion in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Adjusted loss per share is estimated to be around 22 cents for the fiscal first quarter.
However, higher costs are expected to weigh on the company’s bottom line. Carnival foresees elevated adjusted cruise costs for the first quarter, primarily due to increased occupancy levels, dry-dock expenses, and the seasonal nature of advertising expenditure. Adjusted cruise costs, excluding fuel per available lower berth day, are projected to rise by approximately 9.5% compared to 2023 levels. According to our model, total operating expenses in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 are forecasted to climb by 10.9% year over year to $3.67 billion.
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