The cryptocurrency market’s volatility has taken a toll on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and its investors. With recent downward revisions from Argus Research, many are asking whether now is the right time to hold or sell COIN stock. This Coinbase stock analysis dives into the numbers, performance, and market outlook to provide clarity.

EPS Cuts Spark Concerns

Argus Research recently lowered its 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) from $9.56 to $6.55, a 31% reduction. The firm argued that COIN stock is overvalued relative to traditional financial exchanges and cautioned investors against expecting strong returns at current prices.

The revision underscores a critical point: Coinbase’s earnings are highly dependent on the volatile cryptocurrency market. Unlike traditional financial institutions, the company’s revenue can fluctuate sharply with crypto prices, making long-term earnings visibility challenging.

Understanding COIN Stock

Founded in 2012 and headquartered in New York, Coinbase operates the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. The platform caters to retail traders, institutional investors, and developers building decentralized applications. Despite this broad footprint, COIN stock has lost 13.36% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which rose 12.36% during the same period.

Between April and July, COIN stock briefly tripled in value before entering a downtrend. Its price movements mirror the underlying volatility of the crypto assets traded on its platform, making it a challenging stock for risk-averse investors.

How COIN Compares to Its Peers

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) trades at a projected 2026 P/E ratio of 31.56x, higher than the London Stock Exchange (LSEGY) at 21.54x and Nasdaq (NDAQ) at 26x. Yet, relative to its own five-year average, COIN trades at a 24% discount, highlighting the difficulty in comparing it to traditional exchanges.

A key difference is dividend yield. Both LSEGY (1.09%) and NDAQ (1.21%) provide steady payouts, offering a cushion for investors. Coinbase, by contrast, pays no dividend, which can be a drawback for those seeking income or stability.

Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations

Coinbase’s Q3 2025 earnings report surprised analysts with EPS of $1.50, beating the consensus estimate of $1.10. Despite this, Coinbase stock continued to slide, partly due to rising operating costs. The company cited recent acquisitions like Deribit and Echo as factors contributing to an expected $100 million increase in Q4 expenses.

The company’s workforce is also expanding, although at a slower pace. Management highlighted a favorable pro-crypto political climate supporting regulatory progress and mergers and acquisitions. However, intensifying competition may pressure margins, a concern reflected in the stock’s persistent downward trend.

Analysts’ Take on Coinbase Stock

Wall Street analysts are divided on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). Of the 33 analysts covering Coinbase stock, 16 rate it as “Strong Buy” and 14 as “Hold.” The mean price target of $389 suggests potential upside of 53%, while the most bullish analyst projects COIN could reach $510, implying more than 100% upside.

Despite Argus’ warnings, the analyst consensus indicates that Coinbase stock may still hold significant growth potential for investors willing to weather crypto volatility.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Coinbase’s earnings remain highly tied to cryptocurrency market performance.

• The stock trades at a premium to traditional exchanges but below its five-year average P/E.

• Rising expenses and increased competition could weigh on margins.

• Analyst sentiment remains bullish, with price targets suggesting substantial upside.

For investors considering Coinbase stock, the decision largely depends on risk tolerance and confidence in the long-term growth of the crypto market. While short-term volatility may persist, the potential for upside remains significant for those who can navigate the swings.

For investors considering Coinbase stock, the decision largely depends on risk tolerance and confidence in the long-term growth of the crypto market. While short-term volatility may persist, the potential for upside remains significant for those who can navigate the swings. Investors should stay informed on regulatory developments, monitor crypto market trends, and be prepared for sudden price swings, as COIN stock’s performance can change rapidly in response to market dynamics.

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