Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is back in the spotlight as earnings season kicks off, and all eyes are on the semiconductor giant. On April 24, after the market close, Intel will report its Q1 2025 earnings. While analysts expect a muted performance, the surge in demand driven by new tariffs and export restrictions might have provided a temporary lift to the company’s numbers. Here’s a closer look at what Intel stock investors can expect.

Intel Faces Short-Term Surge Amid Tariff Fears

The semiconductor industry is facing unique challenges as geopolitical tensions increase, particularly with tariffs and export restrictions on certain products. This situation has led to a “tariff frenzy,” with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and enterprise buyers rushing to purchase chips ahead of potential price hikes. Analysts believe this rush to secure inventory will boost Intel’s Q1 revenue, especially in the notebook and desktop CPU segments. However, the concern is that once these customers deplete their stockpiled inventory, Q2 may see a significant slowdown in demand, which could hurt Intel’s performance.

Q1 Expectations: Will the “Tariff Frenzy” Boost Intel Stock?

For Q1 2025, Wall Street analysts expect Intel to report $12.31 billion in revenue, a 3.2% decline from the previous year. The company’s earnings are also expected to fall, continuing a trend of weakening financials that has plagued Intel in recent quarters. Despite this, the “tariff frenzy” could provide an artificial lift to Intel’s results, potentially masking the underlying weakness in the company’s core businesses.

Intel’s previous quarter saw a double-beat performance, but revenue was still down by 7% year-over-year, largely due to the lingering impacts of tariffs and supply chain issues. As a result, investors will be watching closely to see if this quarter’s spike in demand will translate into sustained growth or if it’s simply a temporary blip caused by external factors.

What to Expect from Intel’s Forward Guidance

As always, Intel’s management commentary during the earnings call will be crucial for investors. Analysts will be paying close attention to the company’s forward guidance, especially regarding post-tariff ordering trends. Intel’s leadership will need to offer clarity on how the company plans to handle the potential inventory glut in Q2 and whether it can maintain its momentum beyond the short-term surge in demand. The company’s strategy for navigating the changing geopolitical landscape and its ability to capitalize on new opportunities, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and foundry services, will be key topics to watch.

Intel’s AI Ambitions: A Path to Growth?

Despite its challenges, Intel is not without growth opportunities. The company has set its sights on the AI PC market, which is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%. Intel’s ambitious goal is to ship over 100 million AI PCs by the end of 2025. If Intel can execute this strategy successfully, it could help the company regain relevance in the face of weak desktop demand.

Additionally, Intel’s upcoming Panther Lake chips, built on the company’s new 18A process node, could help it compete more effectively in the high-performance computing market. This technological advancement is seen as a key to Intel’s future growth, as the company seeks to challenge competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) in the AI and data center sectors.

Intel’s Foundry Business: A Potential Game-Changer

Intel’s foundry business also holds significant potential for growth. The company is strategically positioning itself as a key player in U.S.-based chip manufacturing, which could become even more valuable as geopolitical tensions escalate and tariffs impact global supply chains. Potential partnerships with companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) could further bolster Intel’s foundry business and help it capitalize on the growing demand for chips worldwide.

Is Intel Stock a Buy Now?

Currently, analysts have a cautious outlook on Intel stock, with a consensus “Hold” rating. Out of 36 analysts covering Intel stock, one rates it a “Strong Buy,” 31 recommend “Hold,” and four suggest a “Strong Sell.” Despite the mixed sentiment, Intel’s average price target of $24 suggests there could still be upside potential of around 20% from current levels.

For investors considering Intel stock (NASDAQ:INTC), the upcoming Q1 earnings report on April 24 will be crucial in shaping the stock’s near-term prospects. While short-term demand may provide a temporary boost, the real challenge will be sustaining growth in the face of geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain issues. As always, investors should remain cautious and evaluate Intel’s long-term strategy as part of their decision-making process.

Featured Image: Pexels @ Pok Rie

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