Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) is facing questions from investors as OpenAI seeks to revise its multi-billion-dollar partnership with the tech giant. The renegotiation comes amid OpenAI’s potential IPO and includes reduced revenue sharing and changes in Microsoft’s access to proprietary AI tools. While some see this as a potential blow to Microsoft’s AI advantage, the broader Microsoft stock forecast remains bullish.

With strong fundamentals, expanding cloud services, and a dominant role in AI infrastructure, many analysts believe Microsoft remains a buy—despite the evolving relationship with OpenAI.

OpenAI Deal: Strategic Shift or Warning Sign?

OpenAI’s plan to cut Microsoft’s revenue share from 20% to 10% reflects its intent to take more control as it moves toward a public offering. Microsoft’s investment—now totaling around $13 billion—helped fuel OpenAI’s meteoric rise, and the current $300 billion valuation suggests that partnership paid off.

But as OpenAI becomes more independent, investors wonder whether Microsoft’s access to future models, tools, and data could be limited. Could this impact the Microsoft stock forecast?

So far, experts say no. Microsoft has embedded AI across its product ecosystem, including Microsoft 365, GitHub Copilot, and Azure, reducing reliance on OpenAI alone.

Strong Earnings Support Microsoft’s Stock Outlook

Microsoft’s fundamentals remain rock-solid. In its most recent quarter, the company posted:

• $70.1 billion in total revenue (up 13.3% year-over-year)

• $3.46 EPS, beating the expected $3.22

• $37 billion in operating cash flow, with $28.8 billion in cash and zero short-term debt

Notably, the services segment—which includes the high-margin cloud business—grew from $44.8 billion to $54.7 billion. These numbers demonstrate Microsoft’s unmatched ability to scale, even as the tech sector faces macro headwinds.

Analysts expect forward revenue growth of 14.28% and earnings growth of 16.04%, both well above sector averages. The Microsoft stock forecast reflects confidence in continued outperformance.

Cloud and AI Still Power Microsoft’s Future

Even if OpenAI scales back its collaboration, Microsoft’s AI ambitions remain intact. Azure’s performance shows that Microsoft isn’t dependent on a single partner for innovation.

In Q3 2025, cloud-related revenue surged 22% to $42.4 billion, driven by surging enterprise demand for AI-driven solutions. Microsoft’s ability to deploy both proprietary and open-source AI models across its platforms keeps it ahead of competitors.

The company is also ramping up data center expansion and capital investment, forecasting $80 billion in 2025 spending. This includes boosting compute capacity to meet the growing AI workload demand.

Beyond AI, Microsoft’s investment in quantum computing, specifically through its Majorana-based chips, signals a long-term bet on what many believe will be the next transformative technology wave.

Wall Street Analysts Remain Bullish on MSFT

Despite questions about OpenAI, analysts remain overwhelmingly positive on Microsoft. Of the 46 analysts covering the stock:

• 38 rate it a “Strong Buy”

• 4 rate it a “Moderate Buy”

• 4 rate it a “Hold”

The average price target sits at $508.48, representing a 12% upside from current levels. The continued strength of Azure, resilient earnings growth, and visionary tech investments keep analysts aligned on a positive Microsoft stock forecast.

Is Microsoft Stock a Buy Right Now?

While OpenAI’s renegotiation signals some shift in the AI landscape, Microsoft’s strategic positioning remains largely unchanged. With unmatched cash flow, industry-leading cloud infrastructure, and growing AI integration, Microsoft appears well-equipped to maintain leadership in tech.

For long-term investors, the Microsoft stock forecast supports staying the course. Short-term volatility aside, Microsoft remains one of the most fundamentally sound and future-ready companies on the market.

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