Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) are climbing as speculation mounts that former President Donald Trump, if re-elected, could repeal recent AI chip export restrictions. These rules, introduced by the Biden administration under the so-called “AI diffusion rule,” limited exports of Nvidia’s H20 and other advanced AI chips to China and certain other nations.

The move rattled Nvidia stock last year, triggering a sharp selloff over fears that the company could lose one of its biggest markets. However, new reports suggest Trump is considering dismantling these rules, describing them as “overly complex” and proposing a simpler, pro-American innovation policy. A federal spokesperson hinted to Yahoo Finance that “a new framework will ensure American AI dominance without tying the hands of our top tech innovators.”

For Nvidia stock, the news adds fresh momentum. NVDA shares have already bounced back more than 25% from April lows, and if restrictions are indeed lifted, the path could open for even greater upside.

Will New Tariff Risks Limit Upside for Nvidia Stock?

That said, the optimism around Nvidia stock should be tempered with caution. Trump’s potential replacement for the AI diffusion rule may not be entirely favorable. According to Citi analyst Atif Malik, the proposed licensing regime could be even more stringent, requiring international agreements to authorize chip exports.

Malik warned that these changes might “put AI chips at the center of tariff negotiations,” a shift that could introduce new complexity and delay. In fact, the White House is reportedly weighing fresh tariffs of up to 25% on semiconductors. If implemented, these could begin to weigh on Nvidia’s business in the latter half of 2025.

Nonetheless, for now, traders appear to be focused more on the positive implications of possible policy shifts, keeping Nvidia stock on a bullish trajectory.

Nvidia’s Long-Term AI Growth Story Still Intact

Despite short-term policy risks, many analysts remain bullish on Nvidia stock for the long haul. Bernstein analysts reiterated their “Outperform” rating this week, calling Nvidia a leader in what they describe as a “still-early datacenter opportunity.” The firm has set a price target of $185, implying a potential upside of more than 55% from current levels.

Even with regulatory uncertainty, Nvidia continues to benefit from massive demand for its AI chips. The company’s GPUs power the majority of AI workloads worldwide, including those for ChatGPT and other generative AI applications. Revenue from the datacenter segment surged more than 400% year-over-year in the last quarter, a trend that’s unlikely to reverse anytime soon.

Retail investors are also showing strong conviction. JPMorgan data indicates that individuals poured $1.1 billion into Nvidia stock over just one week—a sign that the public sees continued growth potential, regardless of political changes.

Wall Street Stays Bullish on Nvidia Stock

Nvidia stock also enjoys widespread support among institutional analysts. According to Barchart, the consensus rating remains “Strong Buy,” with a mean price target of $166—suggesting more than 40% upside from current trading levels. Out of 42 analysts covering NVDA, 31 rate it a “Strong Buy,” with only three suggesting a “Hold” or lower.

With earnings growth accelerating and demand for AI infrastructure booming, Nvidia stock appears well-positioned to benefit from both tech trends and potential shifts in U.S. trade policy. While geopolitical risks remain, the company’s fundamentals, global footprint, and dominance in AI computing make it a top contender for long-term investors.

In summary, Nvidia stock could surge further if Trump follows through on repealing AI chip export rules. Even with new tariff concerns, NVDA’s AI moat and strong support from analysts and retail investors keep it firmly on the radar for growth-focused portfolios.

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