Nvidia Stock: What’s Behind the 7% Drop?

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Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) tumbled nearly 7% on April 16, closing at a 6.9% loss, after the company revealed new U.S. export restrictions targeting its advanced chips. These restrictions are part of the U.S. government’s ongoing efforts to limit the flow of high-performance technology to China and Chinese-headquartered companies. The export limits include critical products such as Nvidia’s H20 chip, which is central to its data center operations.

The Impact of Export Restrictions on Nvidia

In a recent 8-K filing, Nvidia disclosed that the new restrictions would require the company to obtain licenses for shipments to China, creating uncertainties around future revenue. Nvidia estimates that the export restrictions could result in up to $5.5 billion in charges for the current quarter. This development suggests that the company is concerned about its ability to quickly secure the necessary licenses, which could hinder its ability to fulfill orders in the near term.

China Exposure and Regulatory Challenges

While these export restrictions are not a complete ban, they add a layer of regulatory risk to Nvidia’s business, especially considering the company’s substantial exposure to China. In fiscal 2025, Nvidia generated $17.1 billion in revenue from China, which made up approximately 13.1% of its total sales. Although Nvidia has successfully adapted to export controls in the past, the current situation adds new uncertainty, especially as the Chinese market remains fiercely competitive.

In addition, there is a growing concern about potential retaliatory measures from the Chinese government. These measures could further disrupt Nvidia’s supply chain or limit its access to crucial markets. As such, investors are watching the situation closely to assess the long-term implications for Nvidia’s global operations.

Nvidia’s Solid Fundamentals Remain Intact

Despite these short-term challenges, Nvidia’s core business remains robust. The company posted an impressive $130.5 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, more than double the revenue of the previous year. This growth is primarily driven by Nvidia’s data center segment, which continues to benefit from the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

The company’s Blackwell platform, which has replaced the successful Hopper architecture, has been a standout performer. Blackwell generated $11 billion in sales within a single quarter, showing the market’s appetite for Nvidia’s next-generation AI-focused chips. Demand for high-end Nvidia chips is expected to remain strong as AI infrastructure builds out globally, with major tech companies relying on Nvidia’s full-stack solutions for their AI initiatives.

Nvidia’s Diversified Business Model

Beyond AI, Nvidia is also expanding into several other growth sectors, including autonomous driving, robotics, and healthcare. The company’s automotive business, for instance, saw a remarkable 55% year-over-year growth, reaching $1.7 billion in fiscal 2025. Additionally, Nvidia’s gaming business, which had experienced some weakness in the past, is on track to rebound with new AI-powered GPUs set to transform the gaming experience.

The expansion of Nvidia’s products into new sectors and continued leadership in AI positions the company for long-term success. This diversified business model helps mitigate the risks associated with potential regulatory hurdles and allows Nvidia to tap into multiple growth opportunities.

Analyst Confidence in Nvidia Stock

Despite the recent volatility in Nvidia stock, analysts remain optimistic about its long-term prospects. While Nvidia stock has pulled back by about 33% from its 52-week high, the average analyst price target for Nvidia is $173.47, suggesting significant upside potential of around 73% from current levels.

The combination of strong fundamentals, diversified revenue streams, and Nvidia’s dominance in AI technology makes it an attractive investment for long-term holders. While the current market turbulence may create short-term uncertainty, Nvidia’s continued growth in the data center, AI, and other sectors positions it to weather any storm.

Conclusion: Should You Buy Nvidia Stock?

Given Nvidia’s strong market position, the recent pullback in stock price could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors. While the new export restrictions present challenges, Nvidia’s diverse revenue base, coupled with its leadership in AI technologies, makes it a solid pick for those willing to ride out the short-term turbulence. Whether to buy, sell, or hold Nvidia stock ultimately depends on your investment strategy, but analysts remain confident in the company’s ability to navigate regulatory challenges and continue its growth trajectory.

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About the author: Stephanie Bédard-Châteauneuf has over seven years of experience writing financial content for various websites. Over the years, Stephanie has covered various industries, with a primary focus on tech stocks, consumer stocks, market news, and personal finance. She has an MBA in finance.