The Tesla stock 2025 journey has been one of wild swings. After logging its worst quarter since 2022 and getting slammed by tariff shocks in April, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) looked destined for a losing year. EV sales lagged, competition from China tightened, and CEO Elon Musk’s political maneuvers stirred controversy.
But just when sentiment was at its lowest, Tesla turned the tide. A massive $1 billion insider buy from Musk reignited investor enthusiasm, sending the stock sharply higher and back into positive territory for the year.
Elon Musk’s $1 Billion Vote of Confidence
Musk’s personal purchase of 2.57 million Tesla shares, disclosed in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, was his first insider buy in five years. The move came shortly after shareholders approved a pay package that could be worth as much as $1 trillion.
The market loved it. From April’s low of $214.25, Tesla stock nearly doubled, hitting $428.31 by mid-September. Over the past 52 weeks, shares have gained 87%, with a blistering 79% rally in just six months.
Still, caution flags are flying. Technical indicators show Tesla trading above its Bollinger Band, with a 14-day RSI reading of 79.83 — the most overbought level this year. That suggests a potential cooling period ahead, even as Musk doubles down on Tesla’s long-term vision.
Tesla’s Q2 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Picture
Tesla’s second-quarter 2025 earnings, reported on July 23, reflected the company’s challenges. Revenue came in at $22.5 billion, down 12% year over year (YOY). Earnings per share (EPS) slid 23% YOY to $0.40. Vehicle deliveries fell 13.5% to 384,122, and automotive revenue tumbled 16%.
Margins offered some relief, coming in at 17.2% thanks to efficiencies in the revamped Model Y, even after a $300 million tariff hit. Liquidity remained strong at $36.8 billion in cash and investments. However, free cash flow collapsed to just $146 million from $1.3 billion a year earlier, underscoring rising capital demands.
During the earnings call, Musk admitted to macro headwinds and reduced Tesla’s 2025 delivery guidance. At the same time, he doubled down on bold bets: autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and Tesla’s growing energy business.
Tesla Stock 2025 Outlook
Analysts expect a rough 2025 for Tesla earnings. Consensus forecasts show EPS falling 41% YOY to $1.20. However, a strong rebound could follow, with projections calling for EPS to climb 67% to $2 by fiscal 2026.
That leaves Tesla investors weighing near-term pain against long-term potential. If robotaxis, humanoid robots, and energy expansion succeed, Tesla could reclaim its growth crown. If not, the EV slowdown and geopolitical risks could weigh heavily on results.
Analyst Ratings for Tesla Stock 2025
Wall Street remains split. Tesla stock currently holds a consensus “Hold” rating. Out of 42 analysts:
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12 rate TSLA a “Strong Buy”
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2 call it a “Moderate Buy”
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18 suggest “Hold”
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10 issue a “Strong Sell”
Tesla trades above its average price target of $299.28, but Wedbush’s Street-high target of $500 suggests another 17% upside from current levels.
Should You Buy Tesla Stock in 2025?
The Tesla stock 2025 comeback has been dramatic, fueled by Musk’s billion-dollar insider buy and a wave of optimism. Yet risks remain: demand for EVs is cooling, technical indicators flash overbought, and unproven moonshots like robotaxis and Optimus robots carry execution risk.
For long-term believers in Musk’s vision, Tesla remains a high-upside growth story. But for cautious investors, TSLA stock today looks more like a high-speed ride than a safe bet.
Featured Image: Freepik
Author Stephanie Bédard-Châteauneuf 
