Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA)
After releasing intermediate Phase 3 findings for its flu vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock jumped about 6% in pre-market trade on Friday. As a result, Moderna stock declined.
Initial data showed “superiority on seroconversion rates for A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 as well as superiority on geometric mean titer ratios for A/H3N2 and non-inferiority on geometric mean titer ratios for A/H1N1,” the business said. Unfortunately, the stock market was knocked since the flu vaccination failed to fulfill targets for influenza B/Victoria- and B/Yamagata-lineage viruses.
“Although we did not achieve non-inferiority for the Influenza B strains that are more prevalent in younger populations, we have already modified the vaccine that we think will increase immune responses against Influenza B and will strive to swiftly test those improvements in a forthcoming clinical research owing to the agility of our mRNA platform,” stated Moderna’s President, Stephen Hoge, M.D.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the “mixed” findings will cause skepticism about mRNA-1010’s regulatory pathway. The vaccination had a “well-tolerated profile” overall.
The analysts wrote in a note that “we emphasize that A strains account for >99% of positive flu tests by clinical laboratories this season,” suggesting that the more positive profile against these strains could bode well for the interim analysis from the separate Ph3 efficacy study, which is due by the end of the first quarter.
Analysts at Brookline Capital Markets said the data lent credence to the broker’s bullish forecast. Analysts speculate that this vaccine candidate might be “particularly successful in the elderly group, which is disproportionately hit by Influenza A.” According to a client note, Moderna predicted its influenza vaccine might hit shelves by 2024.
“We predict that by 2030, mRNA-1010, mRNA-1020, and mRNA-1030 may generate $1.46 billion in sales, assuming a conservative market share of 14% of seasonal flu. Potential seasonal flu vaccinations may have a greater effect than anticipated if they were combined with other, higher-value vaccines, boosting both their value and market share, “experts said.
Based on yesterday’s close, Moderna stocks are down 4% YTD.
Image: Unsplash © Ian Hutchinson
