AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) is gearing up to disclose its first-quarter 2024 financial results on April 26, before the market opens. In the previous quarter, the company surpassed earnings expectations by 1.09%.
Factors to Consider
The Estimate for AbbVie’s total revenues is $11.99 billion, slightly higher than our estimate of $11.93 billion. Driving AbbVie’s revenue growth are the sales of its new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The consensus estimate for Skyrizi sales is $1.97 billion, while Rinvoq is anticipated to generate $1.05 billion in sales.
Zacks model predicts slightly lower sales figures for Skyrizi and Rinvoq at $1.93 billion and $1.00 billion, respectively. The revenue strength of these drugs is primarily due to their approvals for new indications. With these approvals, sales for both drugs could increase in 2024, potentially compensating for the decline in sales of AbbVie’s flagship drug, Humira.
Humira has been facing generic competition in the United States since last year, after losing exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories in 2018. The consensus estimate for Humira sales is $2.23 billion, while our estimate stands at approximately $2.24 billion.
We anticipate a decline in sales of J&J-partnered Imbruvica due to competition from novel oral therapies. The consensus estimate and our model predict sales of $727 million and $722 million, respectively.
On the other hand, sales of Roche-partnered Venclexta are expected to rise as the new patient starts to increase. The consensus estimate and our model project sales of $577 million and $579 million, respectively.
AbbVie has also been investing heavily in its oncology portfolio. In February, the company completed its acquisition of ImmunoGen for $10.1 billion, adding Elahere, a first-in-class antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) approved by the FDA for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. This acquisition strengthens AbbVie’s position in the oncology market.
Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown robust growth, driven by recently approved migraine drugs Ubrelvy and Qulipta. The consensus estimate for neuroscience product sales is $1.93 billion, while our model estimate is around $1.95 billion.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to increase slightly, driven by a recovery in demand for Botox and Juvederm. The consensus estimate and our model project sales of $1.34 billion and $1.35 billion, respectively.
Key Development in Q1
Last month, AbbVie announced its definitive agreement to acquire Landos Biopharma (LABP) for up to $212 million. If the acquisition is successful, it will add Landos’ lead pipeline candidate, NX-13, to AbbVie’s portfolio. NX-13 is a first-in-class, oral NLRX1 agonist in mid-stage development for the treatment of ulcerative colitis. This acquisition is expected to bolster AbbVie’s inflammatory and autoimmune disease portfolio and is scheduled to close in the second quarter of 2024.
Earnings Surprise History
AbbVie has consistently outperformed earnings expectations, beating estimates in each of the past four quarters. The company boasts a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.34%, on average.
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